Lung Cancer Incidence in Both Sexes Across Global Areas: Data from 1978 to 2017 and Predictions up to 2035

Background and Aim: Lung cancer (LC) is one of the most prevalent and fatal malignancies worldwide. In this study, we aimed to analyze temporal trends in LC incidence across 45 areas from 1978 to 2017, investigate regional and demographic patterns of LC incidence, and predict trends from 2018 to 2035. Methods Data on annual LC cases and population statistics, stratified by age and sex, were collected from 111 cancer registries in 45 areas across five continents using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus database. From 1978 to 2017, age-standardized rates (ASRs) per 100,000 individuals were calculated for both sexes and different age groups. A Bayesian age-period-queue model was applied to forecast ASRs until 2035. Results From 1978 to 2017, LC ASRs decreased in most areas for men (32/45 areas) but increased for women (37/45 areas). However, projections from 2018 to 2035 suggested that only 8 of 45 areas will witness increasing LC ASRs for men, whereas 18 areas will experience ASR increases for women. Additionally, Eastern Europe and East Asia were identified as areas of concern because of the higher incidence, whereas older women (> 60 years old) emerged as a major population warranting attention. Conclusion Overall, global LC incidence is gradually declining. However, considerable disparities exist across areas, sexes, and developmental stages. Therefore, understanding area-specific trends, customizing control measures to local contexts, and conducting screening and early interventions in high-incidence areas and populations are central to overcoming these differences.