Inequalities of Outcomes, Opportunities, and Environmental Impacts between Refugees and Host Communities in Gambella Region of Ethiopia: a Reduced-form Econometric and Rasch models Approach

Drawing on primary and SESRE secondary data and outputs produced by reduced-form econometric (linear, Cox, and Poisson) and Rasch models with high statistical confidence , this study investigates differences in food security, economic well-being, spending on education, access to services, and vulnerability to environmental risks between refugee and host communities living in Gambella region in Ethiopia. Across both host communities and refugees, 99% confidence intervals indicate that refugees are 33% more likely to experience moderate or severe food insecurity and 34% more likely to experience severe food insecurity. Results from the analysis of the economic indicators indicate that, on average, the aggregate per adult equivalent consumption expenditure of refugees is 30,459 Birr lower and that the total stock of live stock of refuge is 30,232 Birr lower than that of host communities at 99% confidence level. There are great disparities in educational expenditure across demographic and community groups. On average, refugees spend 394 Birr less per year on education than the host community individuals with 99 percent confidence. Urban individuals spend 261 Birr more than rural counterparts (99% confidence), unemployed individuals spend 248 Birr more than employed individuals (99% confidence), and younger individuals spend 170 Birr more than older age groups (99% confidence). In terms of both total annual aid and total annual credit, host community households receive 14,301 Birr more (95% confidence) and 2,011 Birr more (99% confidence) annually then refugee households. Access to services also varies significantly: On average, rural households have 2.37 km better access to preparatory schools and 11.25 km better access to hospitals than urban households. There are 7.48 km better access to hospitals for host communities as compared to refugee communities. Third, environmental vulnerability assessments show that refugee households are 70 percent less likely than host community households to be affected by floods with 99 percent confidence. Relying up on the findings, recommendations have been made in the last sub-section of this paper.