Weather and Climate Extremes Drive Grain Yield Reductions and Economic Losses in China

As the world's largest grain producer, China faces substantial challenges from weather and climate extremes, threatening domestic and global food security. Earlier studies focused narrowly on a single crop type, extreme event type, or small region. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of heatwaves, drought, extreme cold, and extreme rainfall on wheat, maize, and rice yields in China from 1970 to 2019. We find these extremes reduce grain yields by 3.3, 7.3, 1.9, and 3.0%, respectively, amounting to 33.5, 66.6, 18.0, and 29.3% of the interannual yield variability. Chinese agriculture faces distinct vulnerabilities, with more diverse extremes significantly affecting more crop types compared to global, European, and American assessments. These yield reductions cause annual losses of 9.1 million tons in production and USD 3.1 billion, both increasing over time. Rainfed croplands suffer twice the yield losses of irrigated croplands, suggesting irrigation as an effective adaptation strategy. Current crop models largely underestimate these losses, indicating future climate impacts may be more severe than previously assessed.