Evolution of infrastructure burden for US cities by 2100

In 2020, 40% of U.S. cities were losing population. As people emigrate, maintaining the infrastructure once built for a growing population can burden the remaining residents. Using population projections, we forecast future infrastructure (following current population growth) up to 2100 and examine infrastructure burden trends across the U.S. in 2050 and 2100. By analyzing per capita residential built-up volume (RBUV) and roadway length (RL), we find that 53% of U.S. cities (out of 30,498) will face an increasing burden by 2100. The extent of this burden varies, with low-density cities being more affected than high-density cities. Around 14% of these cities may initially experience a decreasing burden, only to face an increasing burden before the end of this century. Regardless of their own population trends, cities need to rethink their planning policies to minimize existing or future infrastructure burden. While depopulation is often viewed negatively, it is inevitable. The narrative around depopulation and existing policies that focus solely on growth must change as it presents an opportunity to rethink how infrastructure is planned and managed.