Predicting the potential habitats of two Lycium species and the quality suitability of Lycium Chinese Mill. Cortex under climate change

Lycii Cortex is a frequently utilized traditional Chinese medicine with notable therapeutic properties. The impact of climate change on its distribution and quality of Lycii Cortex is a significant concern. In this study, it investigated the geographic distribution of two sources of plants for Lycii Cortex and collected data on the distribution of samples from different origins via an online survey. HPLC was employed to ascertain the concentrations of kukoamine B and kukoamine A in the samples. Subsequently, the integrated ecological factor data were employed to forecast the prospective expansion areas of Lycium Chinese Mill. and Lycium barbarum L. under future climatic conditions, the migration trajectory of suitable habitat centers of mass, and the potential impact of climatic factors on the quality of Lycii Cortex at varying times using Maxent and ArcGIS. The current climate scenario indicates that suitable habitats for L. barbarum are primarily distributed in the northern, northwestern, and southwestern regions of China, while L. Chinese is predominantly distributed in the central, southern, and southeastern regions of China. In the RCP4.5 from 2050s to 2070s, the total area deemed suitable for both two Lycii Cortex species is significantly reduced. The mean distribution center of L. barbarum shifted towards higher latitudes, while that of L. Chinese shifted towards lower latitudes. It was predicted that in the future, the area of suitable quality of Lycii Cortex would appear to decrease. The results of this study can provide a reference for the determination of the suitable cultivation area of Lycii Cortex in China and the sustainable development of two Lycium species resources.