Global, regional, and national burdens of pancreatitis in children and adolescents aged 0–24 years from 1992 to 2021: a trend analysisbased on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Younger onset of pancreatitis poses a significant public health challenge, this study aims to analyze the global burden of pancreatitis in young populations based on Global Burden of Disease 2021. Methods: This study uses Incidence and Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to assess the pancreatitis burden. Using Joinpoint modeling to assess the trend of the burden. Using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling to assess age annual percentage changes as well as period and cohort relative risks. Using Norpred modeling to predict the burden through 2040. Results: Globally, the incidence of pancreatitis among younger individuals is 9.16/100,000(95%UI 5.74 to 13.85) in 2021, AAPC 0.13 (95%CI 0.12-0.14); the DALYs is 6.36/100,000(95%UI 5.21-7.97) in 2021, AAPC -0.93 [95%CI (-1.01 to -0.85)]. Global incidence rates of pancreatitis have risen notably since 1999, and the overall burden of DALYs has declined over the 30 years. In the APC model, different age group experienced different risks. According to the Norpred predictive model, by 2040, the global incidence of pancreatitis among younger individuals is projected to reach 313,567 cases, with an rate of 9.07/100,000. Conclusion: Globally, the incidence of pancreatitis in younger individuals has risen over the past three decades. Urgent policy interventions are needed to address healthcare inequities to alleviate this burden.