Radiomic-based models are able to predict the pathologic response to different neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimens in patients with gastric and gastroesophageal cancer: a cohort study

Background. There is a clinical need to identify early predictors for response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with gastric and gastroesophageal junction cancer (GC and GEJC). This study aimed to apply radiomics to build prediction models for the response to NAC. Methods . All consecutive patients with non-metastatic GC and GEJC undergoing preoperative chemotherapy and surgical resection in an Italian high-volume referral center between 2005-2021 were considered eligible. In patients selected, the CT scans performed upon staging were reviewed to segment the tumor and extract radiomic features using MODDICOM. The primary endpoint was to develop and validate radiomic-based predictive models to identify major responders (MR: tumor regression grade TRG 1-2) and non-responders (NR: TRG 4-5) to NAC. Following an initial feature selection, radiomic and combined radiomic-clinicopathologic prediction models were built for the MR or NR status based on logistic regressions. Internal validation was performed for each model. Radiomic models (in the entire case series and according to NAC regimens) were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and negative predictive value (NPV). Results . The study included 77 patients undergoing NAC and subsequent tumor resection. The MR prediction model after all types of NAC had an overall good screening value (AUC 0.876, CI 95% 0.786−0.966, sensitivity 83%, and NPV 96%). The models predicting NRs among patients undergoing epirubicin with cisplatin and fluorouracil (ECF), epirubicin with oxaliplatin and capecitabin (EOX), or fluorouracil with oxaliplatin and docetaxel (FLOT) (AUC 0.760, CI 95% 0.639-0.882), oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy (AUC 0.810, CI 95% 0.692-0.928), and FLOT (AUC 0.907, CI 95% 0.818 − 0.995) had satisfactory performance. Conclusions . The developed radiomic models resulted promising in predicting the response to different neoadjuvant chemotherapy strategies. Once further implemented on larger datasets, they could be valuable and cost-effective instruments to target multimodal treatment in patients with GC.