Analysis of Water Inflows and Withdrawals at the Bagré Dam within the Energy-Water-Food Nexus

The energy-water-food nexus highlights the diverse and complex interrelationships between these three resources. The impact of climate change on water resources can disrupt hydroelectricity and agricultural production. A better understanding of these impacts is important in order to find appropriate solutions. The objective of this study is to assess the potential effects of climate change on water inflows, storage, and withdrawals from the Bagré dam in Burkina Faso. This dam is multipurpose, particularly for agricultural and hydropower production. To achieve this, a model has been developed using the Random Forest approach to assess future climate change in the Bagré area and its impact on water inflows and withdrawals for the dam’s uses. The results show a temperature rise of 1°C to 5°C and a general increase in rainfall of up to 50% for the MeanEns model over future periods compared with the reference period. These changes in climate variables result in an increase in dam inflows of up to 300 Mm ³ compared with the reference period, an increase in water storage of up to 400 Mm ³ , and an increase in agricultural and hydroelectric water volumes of up to 8 and 40 Mm ³ respectively. The performance of the model built is quite satisfactory for simulating water inflows and water withdrawals for irrigation and hydroelectricity. In view of the increase in the various hydroelectric and agricultural water requirements, it is important to find effective ways for efficient water resource management of the Bagré dam.