Energy Burden in Electric Vehicle Grid Integration: A New England Case Study

Widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is hailed as an effective measure for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fighting climate change. However, increasing charging loads coinciding with greater uptake of EVs will place additional pressure on the current and future electric grid. To better understand the implications of transportation electrification on the electric grid, existing literature has begun to examine the impact of changing EV charging loads on electricity price. However, within these studies, the analysis is often at an aggregated level, both geographically and population wise, and limited attention has been given to con- textualizing electricity price changes locationally and demographically. In response to these limitations, here we conducted an in-depth study of the implications of large-scale EV grid integration using the ISO New England (ISO-NE) network as a case study. Using the regional system planning (RSP) model of ISO-NE, we investigated the changes in wholesale prices in 13 RSP areas in a baseline scenario that represents the current system projected into 2040, and a deep decarbonization scenario set forth in the technical report of Massachusetts 2050 decarbonization roadmap study. We also studied variations based on the deep decarbonization scenario. We then translated the predicted changes in wholesale prices into changes in retail electricity rates at a county level, and examined the impact on for households contained in 2021 American Community Survey data. Results suggest substantial seasonal and geographical differences in locational marginal prices (LMPs) in ISO-NE network. While our results show that the projected production resources and transmission capacity in 2040 are generally sufficient to support the EV adoption goal, further increase in EV adoptions may create significant increase in electricity prices that have substantial locational and demographic variations. Finally, we summarized the differences in the energy burdens on differ- ent demographic groups created by the projected increase in LMPs and subsequent increases in retail rates at county level.