The ambiguity of ‘balanced neighbourhoods’: how Rotterdam’s housing policy undermines urban social resilience

Cities worldwide increasingly adopt social resilience strategies, yet their implementation often obscures real drivers of urban renovation with ambiguous indicators. This study examines Rotterdam’s 'balanced neighbourhoods' policy, based on property values, and its claimed contribution to urban social resilience. Using empirical data and structural equation modelling, we investigate how housing value mix affects social cohesion and informal support in 'balanced neighbourhood' configurations. Only 2.1% of possible configurations fit Rotterdam’s urban policy claims, and even those yield counterproductive associations. We argue that the ambiguous definition of 'balanced neighbourhoods' obscures policy goals, allowing areas in Rotterdam North to meet 'balance' criteria without reflecting the municipality’s long-term composition targets, while the South—dominated by social housing—faces demolition. Our study highlights the need for more nuanced measures of resilience and calls for shifting from interventions that alter the physical composition of neighbourhoods to enhancing social cohesion as a key factor promoting resilient actions.