Understanding Clean-Energy Supply Chains: A US Perspective

This paper examines supply chain conditions which affect the US clean energy goals. By focusing on critical raw materials for wind, solar photovoltaic, and lithium-ion battery storage technologies, we develop an optimization model to simulate supply chain conditions through 2050. The model incorporates historical growth rates from the last mineral production supercycle and critical raw material trade flows to estimate future availability. Our findings reveal that under the current trade strategy and production growth, the US may achieve only 65% of its clean energy goals, with nickel, silicon, and rare earth elements identified as key bottlenecks. This paper emphasizes that meeting clean energy goals requires not only enhancing domestic production and manufacturing capabilities for these critical materials but also strengthening international cooperation and adopting mitigation strategies to address supply chain constraints.