Modeling Regional Determinants of Early Motherhood in Colombia and its impact during COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction : Early motherhood, defined as occurring in women under 19 years of age, poses significant social challenges with immediate and long-term consequences. This study focuses on early fertility rates (early motherhood) in Colombia and examines their relationship with social and demographic factors. Methods : Departmental-level data from Colombia's Social Protection Information System (RUAF) and the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) were cleaned and aggregated from 2018-2023. This allowed the estimation of the overall fertility rate, infant fertility rate, and adolescent fertility rate by department and year. A model was constructed to estimate the influence of recognized risk factors such as low educational attainment (% of undereducated population), poverty level (% of population under subsidized health schemes, current GDP), employment rates (% of workforce participation), violence against women (% of female deaths, both general and violent), and infant mortality. The model was refined to improve performance by removing variables with low contributions to early motherhood. Results: Fertility indicators focusing on early fertility in Colombia were described. Regions that should be prioritized for early fertility prevention strategies were identified because of their increase in the early pregnancy rate during the pandemic. Significant risk factors included the percentage of the population under subsidized health schemes, GDP per capita, percentage of violent deaths, percentage of female deaths, and percentage of deaths among those <18 years of age. Conclusions: We identified regions that should be prioritized for early fertility prevention strategies, highlighting areas particularly vulnerable to increased early fertility rates during the pandemic. These findings reveal the effects of relaxed public health measures alongside the social and demographic factors needed for targeted interventions. Further research is necessary to quantify the impact of specific interventions on early fertility rates.