Integrating ecological niche modeling and land use analysis for targeted conservation of Elaeocarpus prunifolius in India

Mismatch between broad spatial scales at which niche models operate vis-à-vis the finer localized scales required for conservation actions often hinder the effective translation of model outputs into actionable strategies. This study addresses this issue by integrating ecological niche modelling (ENM) with land use and land cover (LULC) analysis to improve the conservation status of a threatened tree species Elaeocarpus prunifolius in Northeast India. Using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model, we predicted the potential distribution of E. prunifolius using MODIS-based Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and ASTER-based elevation data. The predicted distribution, covering 8.97% (~ 201,321 ha) of Meghalaya's total geographical area, was further refined through the overlay of LULC maps, identifying ~ 17,033 ha as highly suitable habitat. Field validation of the predicted distribution maps led to the discovery of new populations, confirming the model accuracy. This integrated approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining ENM with LULC analysis for the precise identification of conservation sites, thereby improving the potential for successful conservation and reintroduction efforts for E. prunifolius . The study highlights the critical role of integrating predictive models with ground validation in developing informed and effective conservation strategies.