One-fifth of the world's population at high risk from climate-related hazards

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. When these events occur, they threaten lives and livelihoods. Here we estimate the global population at high risk from climate-related hazards by examining household level vulnerability and local exposure to four types of events: droughts, floods, heatwaves and cyclones. Under current climate conditions, 4.5 billion people are expected to experience these hazards at intensities exceeding critical thresholds within their lifetime. One third of this population is considered highly vulnerable, based on seven dimensions that influence potential welfare impacts: income, education, access to finance, social protection, drinking water, electricity, and access to services and markets. Overall, we estimate that 1 in 5 people globally are at high risk from these hazards meaning that they are likely to experience them and would struggle to recover from their impacts. While the proportion of the population at high risk has nearly halved since 2010 due to decreased vulnerability, the number of people exposed has increased, and progress has been uneven across regions. This study demonstrates how household survey and high-resolution spatial data can be used to consistently track climate risks across countries and over time. The findings are relevant for policymakers working on climate change adaptation strategies.