The impact of global warming on U.S. hurricane landfall

The projection of hurricane activity under climate change continues to be challenging. Here the new Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) was used to analyse the impact of global warming on North Atlantic hurricane activity. The model assumes increases of potential intensity as the principal cause of change and this allows study of both recent trends and projections for the first time in a consistent way. The recent observed hurricane intensification is simulated but underestimated. For a +2°C global warming scenario hurricanes of intensity Category 4 and above become 62\% more likely in the basin and nearly two times (92\%) more likely at landfall. The future number of hurricanes is also uncertain and its impact is examined by sensitivity studies. Reduction of the basin count offsets warming driven landfall frequency increases but only for weaker storms. The increased frequency of the most damaging landfalling hurricanes is controlled by changes in potential intensity.