Mapping Global Cereal Flow at Subnational Scales Unveils Key Insights for Food Systems Resilience

Enhancing food systems resilience requires a comprehensive understanding of food distribution along global supply chains. This research maps spatially resolved networks of global cereal flows across 3,536 subnational regions within 195 countries employing a modeling pipeline comprising machine learning, data processing, and calibration algorithms to downscale national cereal flow data. The study identifies pivotal exporting and importing regions and evaluates the implications of cereal flows for food systems resilience. It reveals insights into regional self-sufficiency and trade dependencies, such as higher self-sufficiency in the United States, Canada, and India, where domestic inflows dominate consumption, versus regions in Southeast Asia and Europe that rely on a complex mix of domestic and international inflows. The investigation uncovers regional concentration in cereal inflows and outflows at both national and subnational scales, emphasizing the importance of nuanced supply chain analysis to reinforce regional resilience and to adapt to challenges posed by climate change.