Assessment of the Robustness and Resilience of the Water System in the Bogotá River Basin: A Multi-Objective Optimization Approach

Extreme climatic phenomena, such as the El Niño /Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have significant consequences for human life and global ecosystems. This phenomenon manifests in two forms: La Niña and El Niño . In Colombia, La Niña brings seasons of intense rainfall and flood risks, while El Niño induces warm and dry conditions, reducing river flow rates, reservoir levels, and causing water scarcity. In the Bogotá River basin, located in the Cundinamarca department, Colombia, these phenomena have resulted in severe floods and water and energy rationing in the past. Understanding and monitoring these events are fundamental for risk management and adaptation to climate change. This study focuses on evaluating the robustness and resilience of the hydrological system in the Bogotá River basin in the face of flooding and water scarcity events, analyzing strategic control points throughout the basin. A multi-objective linear programming model was implemented to represent the functioning of the hydrological system, covering 22 hydrographic sub-basins, 9 reservoirs, and 25 monitoring stations distributed along the Bogotá River. The findings of the study are crucial for risk planning and mitigation, promoting more effective management in response to extreme climatic events. However, the results indicate that the hydrological system lacks the necessary robustness and resilience to operate effectively under extreme conditions of rainfall or drought, highlighting the need to adopt strategies that improve its operational performance and meet robustness and resilience requirements, thus ensuring its functionality even under adverse climatic scenarios.