Construction of a Novel Prognostic Risk Warning Model for Bunyavirus Patients Based on Inflammatory Indicators

Objective To analyze the risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with SFTS and construct an early warning model. Methods 207 patients with SFTS admitted to Huazhong University of Science and Technology Affiliated Tongji Hospital from April 1, 2023 to July 18, 2024 were selected for retrospective analysis. According to the patients' prognosis, they were divided into survival group (n=133) and death group (n=74). The independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis of general information and inflammatory indicators within 24 hours. An early warning model was established based on the independent risk factors. Results Age (OR = 1.162, 95% CI (1.102 ~ 1.236), P <0.001), viral load (OR = 2.669, 95% CI (1.764 ~ 4.239), P <0.001), PCT (OR = 2.758, 95%CI (1.586 ~ 5.231), P = 0.001), and IL-10 (OR = 1.005, 95% CI (1.001 ~ 1.009), P = 0.19) were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients. A nomogram model was constructed based on the four risk factors, and the predictive performance of the model was good (ROC = 0.905, 95%CI (0.862 ~ 0.949), P <0.001). Conclusion The prognostic risk early warning model constructed in this study has good predictive effect, which can be used as a clinical tool for predicting the prognosis of SFTS patients.