Projections of Carbon Emission reduction pathways in the Carbon Neutral Process by 2050 in Italy: Gray Model Analysis

The overuse of fossil energy in industrialization process is a major cause of the frequency of global warming and environmental pollution problems, which seriously threaten the sustainable socio-economic development of Italy and other countries. In response to climate change, Italy has declared a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Against this background, this paper selects Italy's carbon emissions from 2011 to 2021 and predicts Italy's future carbon emissions using the GM (1, 1) model. The study results show that Italy's carbon emissions show a decreasing trend, with an average annual rate of change of 1.65% in the process of carbon neutrality. Italy's carbon dioxide emissions will drop to 195.46 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050, which is about 60.40% lower than the peak in 2005. In addition, according to the capacity of forest carbon sinks, Italy will be able to achieve the carbon neutrality target in 2033. Therefore, this study demonstrates Italy's carbon-neutral promotion strategy and enhances the related carbon-neutral system. It provides some references for other countries, including China, to improve their policy design to promote the green and low-carbon transition of the global economy.