Impact of Land Use Changes and Global Warming on Extreme Precipitation Patterns in the Maritime Continent

Land use changes (LUC) and global warming (GW) significantly affect the climate and hydrological dynamics of the Maritime Continent (MC), yet their impacts on extreme precipitation events remain understudied. This study investigates how LUC and GW influence wet and dry extremes in the MC, using advanced climate model simulations. We find that LUC-induced deforestation increases surface warming, enhancing atmospheric instability and favoring local convection, which leads to more frequent heavy precipitation. Meanwhile, GW amplifies the atmosphere’s water-holding capacity, further intensifying precipitation extremes. Our findings reveal a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" pattern driven by different mechanisms: dynamic processes primarily influence wet extremes under LUC, while changes in evapotranspiration control dry extremes. In contrast, under GW, wet extremes are driven by dynamic process, while dry extremes are influenced by reduced moisture availability and weakened atmospheric circulation. These findings imply the need for climate adaptation and land management strategies to mitigate the increasing risk of extreme weather in this sensitive region.