Attribute risk burden and prediction analysis of cervical cancer under different sociodemographic transitions worldwide from 1990 to 2034

Background Cervical cancer is one of the four most prevalent cancers in women, posing a serious threat to women's health worldwide. In view of this, we aimed to investigate epidemiologic changes in the global burden of cervical cancer attributed to unsafe sex and smoking, respectively, and the relationship with social demographic index (SDI). Methods The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Quantile regression and restricted cubic spline were employed to explore the relationship between age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) or age-standardized Disability-Adjusted Life Years rate (ASDR) of cervical cancer and SDI under different risk factors. Additionally, we used the Nordpred model to predict the ASMR trends in five countries with different SDIs from 2020 to 2034. Results The global disease burden of cervical cancer was gradually decreasing. People aged 55–59 years and 95 + years had the highest age- specific incidence and mortality, respectively. The burden attributed to smoking showed an upward and then downward trend with increasing SDI, peaking at the SDI of 0.6, whereas the burden attributable to unsafe sex decreased as the SDI increased. The ASMR of cervical cancer around the world attributed to smoking and unsafe sex is projected to decrease to 0.58 and 6.39 per 100,000 by 2034, respectively. It is also predicted that the ASMR of cervical cancer attributed to smoking in China, and that attributed to unsafe sex in India and Argentina will increase in the future. Conclusion Unsafe sex is the main risk factor for cervical cancer, followed by smoking. People aged 55–59 years and over 95 years are the key protection groups for cervical cancer. Low SDI and middle-low SDI areas are the key prevention and control areas for cervical cancer. The projection suggests that China needs to strengthen rational control of smoking, and India and Argentina need to improve scientific prevention of unsafe sex.