Optimizing conservation of Ulmus wallichiana, threatened Himalayan species by combining population genetics and species distribution modeling

Global climate change and human action are dismantling many ecosystems at an alarming rate, causing an unprecedented erosion of biodiversity. In this context, investigation of the threats and evaluation of the remedies to protect biological resources are necessary. This study aims to define the appropriate conservation strategy for Ulmus wallichiana , a vulnerable Himalayan Elm species. The structure of genetic diversity was investigated within and among its populations using nuclear microsatellites (SSR). Further, ecological niche modelling was carried out to ascertain the climatic suitability in the Indian Western Himalayas. Our integrative approach identified genetic diversity hotspots and long-term suitable areas across the Western Himalayas for U. wallichiana , two key aspects required for its conservation in the future. Moreover, a negligible level of inbreeding and signs of a genetic bottleneck in several populations were observed. Germplasms from the genetic diversity hotspots for propagation in the climatic hotspots may ensure better genetic diversity under a safer climate in the future. We believe that this integrative approach will guide the formulation of cost, time, and labor-intensive effective strategies in restoring this Himalayan vulnerable species.