Global burden of bacterial skin diseases from 1990 to 2045: An analysis based on Global Burden Disease data

Background The global burden of bacterial skin diseases has not been well evaluated. Objective We aimed to describe the burden and trend of bacterial skin diseases, to explore potential associated factors, and to predict the burden up to 2045. Methods Data on incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of bacterial skin diseases were obtained from Global Burden of Disease 2021. We used average annual percent change (AAPC) by Joinpoint Regression to quantify the temporal trends. We conducted decomposition analysis to understand the contribution of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to predict burden up to 2045. Results Global incidence rate of bacterial skin diseases increased from 8,988.74 per 100,000 in 1990 to 10,823.88 per 100,000, with AAPC of 0.62% (0.61 ~ 0.63%). The highest incidence rate was in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) region and population aged < 35. The DALY rate increased from 20.82 per 100,000 in 1990 to 25.45 per 100,000 in 2021, with AAPC of -0.11% (-0.34 ~ 0.13%). The highest increase of DALY was in high SDI region and population aged > 85. The major drivers of incident case rise were population growth, followed by epidemiological changes; the major drivers of DALY case rise were population growth, followed by aging. Increasing trends were seen in prediction of incidence rate, incident cases and DALY cases; decreasing trend of DALY rate prediction was seen. Conclusion The incidence of bacterial skin diseases increased and varied considerably. The targeted prevention and treatment are needed to reduce burden of bacterial skin disease.