Integrating GIS and AHP for Drought Sensitivity Assessment in the Middle Moulouya and Guercif Basins, Morocco

Drought sensitivity assessments play a critical role in understanding and mitigating risks associated with this phenomenon. This study presents a novel approach for comprehensive drought vulnerability mapping in the Middle Moulouya and Guercif Basins, Morocco. We leverage a multi-criteria framework integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), focusing on three key dimensions: climatic sensitivity, soil sensitivity, and socioeconomic sensitivity. Beyond traditional factors: We expanded the analysis beyond basic climatic data by incorporating future climate projections to estimate drought risk under different scenarios, thereby allowing for more future-proof vulnerability assessments. Soil health matter: Soil moisture content and infiltration capacity were incorporated into the soil sensitivity assessment, provide a more comprehensive picture of soil susceptibility to drought. Socioeconomic considerations: socioeconomic sensitivity analysis goes beyond population density to consider factors such as water resource dependence, agricultural practices, and livelihood diversification. This holistic approach provides a deeper understanding of societal vulnerability to droughts. AHP for informed weighting: AHP facilitates the incorporation of expert knowledge and data analysis by assigning weights to each sub-criterion in three dimensions. This ensured a robust weighting scheme that reflected the relative importance of different factors in drought vulnerability. The resulting vulnerability map not only delineated areas with varying degrees of drought vulnerability (normal, mild, moderate, severe, and extreme) but also highlighted the spatial distribution of these vulnerabilities. Notably, the analysis revealed that 38.88% and 28.80% of the Middle Moulouya and Guercif regions fall under the severe and extreme vulnerability categories, respectively. These areas, particularly the northern, central, and southwestern regions, warrant immediate attention in the development of targeted drought mitigation and adaptation strategies.