High greenhouse gas emission scenarios increase soil erosion risk: A case study of the Min-Tuo River Basin, China

To quantify the current status of soil erosion in the Min-Tuo River Basin and predict future soil erosion conditions, the RUSLE model and GIS technology were employed to assess soil erosion in the Min-Tuo River Basin from 2000 to 2020. Based on the CMIP6 model, precipitation in the Min-Tuo River from 2021 to 2050 was predicted, and the CA-Markov model was used to forecast land use types from 2030 to 2050, thereby predicting the spatial distribution trends of soil erosion in 2030, 2040, and 2050. The results indicate that: (1) The overall soil erosion intensity in the study area increased from 2000 to 2020; (2) Future precipitation in the basin, predicted using the CMIP6 model, showed a fluctuating upward trend compared to historical levels. The SSP5-8.5 scenario had the largest fluctuation; (3) In terms of future land use types, an increase in the area of converted cropland may increase the risk of soil erosion; (4) The area affected by soil erosion in the future will increase, with the highest annual average soil erosion modulus and total amount occurring under the SSP5-8.5 high emission scenario; (5) The dynamic evolution of future soil erosion levels indicates that the stability of soil erosion levels under the SSP2-4.5 scenario is higher than under the other scenarios. In the future high CO2 emission scenario, the risk of soil erosion in the Min-Tuo River Basin will increase, necessitating the active implementation of various prevention and control measures to prevent further exacerbation.