Rising Tides, Sinking Crops: Assessing the Impact of Extreme Sea Level Rise on Coastal Agriculture in Europe and North Africa

The accelerating impact of climate change on sea level rise (SLR) has intensified the examination of its effects on coastal regions. This study focuses on Extreme Sea Level Rise (ESLR) and its potential impacts on Europe and North Africa up to 2050, in particular for agriculture. Utilising Joint Research Centre (JRC) Global Extreme Sea Level projections and Copernicus GLO30 Digital Terrain Models (DTM), we mapped areas vulnerable to ESLR under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Through a topological approach, we generated spatially explicit maps of at-risk regions in the Mediterranean basin and northern coastal EU, overlaying them with data from FAO on crop locations, yields, and values (GAEZ). This method allowed us to estimate the magnitude of ESLR's impact on local agricultural systems. Findings reveal that ESLR can severely affect coastal agriculture, suggesting significant potential agricultural losses, impacting food security and economic stability. This research underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies, including saline agriculture, to mitigate ESLR impacts.