Systematic analysis of non-melanoma skin cancer burden: a comparative study between China and the world from 1990 to 2021 and prediction to 2036

Objective Comparative analysis of the characteristics and trends of the burden of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in China and globally will provide a basis for the development of effective prevention and control measures in China. Methods Data related to incidence, death and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of NMSC in China and the world were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was estimated by the Joinpoint regression model to reflect the time trend. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was constructed for prediction. Results From 1990 to 2021, the increase rates (707.31%, 16.00%, and 10.04%) and upward trends (AAPC = 6.71% (95%: 6.01%~7.18%), 0.46% (95%: 0.40%~0.52%), and 0.28% ( 95%: 0.22%~0.34%)) of the NMSC age standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rate in China were higher than the global level. Both the incidence of NMSC and its rise were higher in men than in women, and the levels of death and DALY were higher in men but rose more rapidly in women. The high incidence, mortality, and DALY rate of NMSC all occurred in the higher age groups. The age-standardized incidence of NMSC in China and globally was predicted to continue to rise over the next 15 years, while the age-standardized mortality rate will decline. Conclusion The burden of NMSC in China remained serious, especially in the context of an increasingly aging population. Relevant authorities should continue to develop and optimize preventive and control measures, especially for men, and adopt targeted measures to significantly reduce the burden of NMSC.