Strategies for Carbon Reduction in China's Aluminum  Industry: An LMDI-based Decomposition and Sensitivity Analysis Framework

In this study, we harnessed Material Flow Analysis (MFA) to meticulously quantify the substance flows across the mining, smelting, electrolysis, Processing and manufacturing, Recycling management, and regeneration stages of China's aluminum industry from 1990 to 2022. Concurrently, we dissected the carbon emissions of primary and secondary aluminum products employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach. The LMDI framework facilitated the decomposition of emissions into five endogenous variables: emission factors, energy structure, energy intensity, product structure, and total production. Our analysis foregrounds the principal driving forces shaping the carbon footprint of the aluminum sector and assesses the nuanced impacts of long-term and short-term policy shifts under various baseline years. Key findings illuminate that : (1)The carbon emission growth in China's aluminum industry has partially decoupled from production.(2)The pivotal elements of the industry's low-carbon transition hinge on technological advancements and enhanced recycling rates of waste products.(3)Enhanced energy efficiency emerges as a critical determinant in curtailing carbon emissions.(4)The industry exhibits robust adaptability to policy shifts.(5)Furthermore, the cumulative and synergistic effects of policies are instrumental in propelling energy conservation, emission reduction, and the cyclical utilization of resources. This research offers not only pivotal insights for the sustainable evolution and carbon mitigation of China's aluminum sector but also serves as a methodological exemplar for CO2 studies in other high-emission industries.