Prediction of Dementia Onset using the Short-Term Memory Recall Test

The increased prevalence of dementia is serious that necessitates simple tests that can identify those at a high risk. This study aimed to investigate the predictive ability of the Short-Term Memory Recall Test (STMT) for the development of dementia. A total of 162 patients aged ≥40 years, examined twice at specific intervals ranging from 1 to 7 years, were included in the study. Herein, 96 of 162 patients were being treated for three known risk factors for dementia: hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, and diabetes. Binomial logistic regression analysis combined with receiver operating curve analysis was used to assess the likelihood of developing dementia. A prediction equation was developed using the STMT score and treatment statuses of the three aforementioned diseases as predictor variables. Finally, p-values calculated using the equation and actual prognoses were subjected to discriminant analysis to determine the hit rate, sensitivity and specificity. Patients with lower STMT scores, older patients, women, and patients undergoing treatment for the three aforementioned diseases were more likely to develop dementia; in 96 patients, the hit rate for prediction was 75.0, with a sensitivity of 81.5 and a specificity of 61.3. This study demonstrates the reliability of the STMT in predicting the onset of dementia.