Spatial-statistical modeling of deforestation from an ecogeomorphic perspective in typical Hyrcanian forests, northern Iran

The spread of disruptive and negative environmental changes in the watersheds has led to the adopting of new interdisciplinary approaches with awareness of the manifold interactions between biotic and abiotic components, to organize and restore watersheds. This study aimed to discover and identify the interaction between geomorphological variables and deforestation by adopting an interdisciplinary approach of ecogeomorphology and relying on statistical-spatial analysis, to model forest loss deforestation. Talesh catchments in northern Iran have been selected as the target area due to their good forest ecosystems and many environmental issues in recent years. Independent geomorphometry variables were: altitude, slope, topographic position index (TPI), northness, esatness, plan curvature, profile curvature, length of slope factor (LS), slope length, topographic wetness index (TPI), contributing area, distance to stream, terrain ruggedness index. The assessment of negative changes in forest cover from 1991 to 2022 showed that about 90 km ² (4.5% of the total area of catchments) has been exposed to deforestation. The results of logistics regression analysis of the relationships between geomorphological variables and deforestation showed that the high probability of forest loss in low altitude and valleys, low slopes, divergent flow points, convex surface, downstream section, flat areas with homogeneous, dry zones with low moisture. Therefore, we noticed the " ecogeomorphic sensitivity " in such areas is more than in other environments. What is important for regional, urban, and rural policymakers and planners are the areas that were identified with high ecogeomorphic sensitivity. These hotspots require more care and protection, and any human intervention in these areas must be done consciously and in accordance with environmental sustainability.