Conservation of vulnerable Cerrado birds in an imminently threatened single large reserve

The establishment of protected areas (PAs) is critical for mitigating anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem functionality. This scenario is more critical in extensively fragmented hotspots such as the Brazilian Cerrado. Therefore, addressing gaps in species composition, vulnerability, and abundance across different zoning interfaces, as well as potential threats to large reserves, are key steps in designing conservation actions. Here we evaluate abundance patterns and use of 17 vulnerable Cerrado birds across ecological zones, particularly Cerrado Stricto sensu and Riparian Forests in Chapada das Mesas National Park (NP). We demonstrate a positive scenario in terms of zoning effectiveness and bird conservation. Notably, the most vulnerable species in the NP are concentrated in areas of higher human occupation and tourist visitation, as well as along restricted-use territories. We also note that Cerrado stricto sensu subtypes constitute a single functional mosaic for endemic birds. Finally, we show that the NP may be imminently threatened by historical fires and potential future destruction of its adjacent ecosystems. Policies and actions focused on reducing deforestation and restoring habitats may represent the only way to prevent this single large reserve from becoming a major extinction site in the future.