The burden, trends, and risk factors for osteoarthritis in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions until 2035

Objective: This research estimated osteoarthritis (OA) disease burden, trends, and risk variables in China from 1990 to 2019 and projected OA burden till 2035. Methods: From the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, data on incident cases, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and age-standardized rates (ASR) for OA were retrieved. We used estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to do trend analysis, while a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to forecast OA tends to 2035. Besides, the burden attributed to OA risk factors was also assessed. Results: The incidence, prevalence and DALY of OA increased 36%, 35%, and 40%, respectively, in China from 1990 to 2019. In China, knee OA was the most widespread, followed by hand OA, and hip OA is the least prevalent. The disease burden of OA was more severe among females than males, with differences in distribution between age groups. The ASIR of OA patients had risen steadily over the last 30 years and was expected to decrease somewhat over the next 15 years. In 2019, all risk variables contributed 12% of OA DALYs. The primary risk variables for OA DALYs were a high body mass index and advancing age. Conclusion: The disease burden of OA in China has increased steadily over the last 30 years, but this trend will become less prominent or perhaps reverse during the next 15 years. High body mass index (BMI) has gradually emerged as an important factor in the disease burden of OA.