Immunogenic cell death signatures derived from on-treatment tumor specimens for predicting immune checkpoint blockade therapy response and prognosis in metastatic melanoma

Melanoma is a highly malignant form of skin cancer that typically originates from abnormal melanocytes. Despite significant advances in treating metastatic melanoma with immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy, a substantial number of patients do not respond to this treatment and face risks of recurrence and metastasis. This study collected data from multiple datasets, including cohorts from Riaz et al., Gide et al., MGH, and Abril-Rodriguez et al., focusing on on-treatment samples during ICB therapy. We used the single-sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA) method to calculate immunogenic cell death scores (ICDS) and employed an elastic network algorithm to construct a model predicting ICB efficacy. By analyzing 18 ICD gene signatures, we identified 9 key ICD gene signatures that effectively predict ICB treatment response for on-treatment metastatic melanoma specimens. Results showed that patients with high ICD scores had significantly higher response rates to ICB therapy compared to those with low ICD scores. ROC analysis demonstrated that the AUC values for both the training and validation sets were around 0.8, indicating good predictive performance. Additionally, survival analysis revealed that patients with high ICD scores had longer progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). This study used an elastic network algorithm to identify 9 ICD gene signatures related to the immune response in metastatic melanoma. These gene features can not only predict the efficacy of ICB therapy but also provide references for clinical decision-making. The results indicate that ICD plays an important role in metastatic melanoma immunotherapy and that expressing ICD signatures can more accurately predict ICB treatment response and prognosis for on-treatment metastatic melanoma specimens, thus providing a basis for personalized treatment.