What will the future bring? – Socio-economic challenges to herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi, Mongolia

Nomadic pastoralism is still practiced by around one-third of the Mongolian population. Recent socio-economic constraints have challenged pastoral livelihoods and led to declines in herder household numbers. Meanwhile, livestock numbers have risen countrywide, threatening overall rangeland health and biodiversity conservation. In the Mongolian Gobi, herder families fully depend on livestock production. Little is known about the current and future trends of their livelihoods and its compatibility with protected area goals to reduce livestock numbers. We combined data from semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions in the Great Gobi B strictly protected area with secondary data on regional and national herder household income and livestock numbers. We determined the importance of social networks, the willingness to continue a herding lifestyle, and the involvement of herders in the protected area management. Our data confirmed that herding is no longer centred around a subsistence lifestyle but rather around cashmere production. Herder families are currently still increasing livestock numbers, which is counter to protected area goals. Costs for education, health care, travelling, and modern communication are high in the economic reality of a market economy and drive the need to increase livestock numbers. Most of the young herder generation are employed urban centres with limited time to support the family herding household. Herders, despite valuing pastures within protected areas, faced challenges due to inadequate communication and conflicting livestock numbers goals. We conclude that herders in the Great Gobi B SPA are reaching livestock numbers which are neither socio-economically nor ecologically sustainable.