High-resolution projection of wind energy in the Middle East’s summer

Understanding the impacts of climate change on wind patterns and wind power potential is crucial for energy planning and resource management, particularly in regions highly vulnerable to climate variability, such as the Middle East. In this study, we utilized a COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulation at an 8km grid spacing to investigate the changes in summer wind patterns over the Middle East and their implications for wind energy potential. Our analysis revealed that COSMO-CLM can effectively capture the broad-scale summer wind patterns over the Middle East. However, considerable uncertainties were observed over coastal and mountainous regions, highlighting the complexity of local wind dynamics. Notably, until 2070, we have identified significant increases of up to 0.7 ms−1 in median surface wind speeds across the Middle East, driven primarily by land-sea temperature contrasts. However, at the 150-meter level, we have observed significant decreases of up to 1.0 ms−1 in median wind speed attributed to changes in frequency and intensity of the Persian Trough synoptic system in a changing climate. Regionally, this decreases median potential wind energy up to 7 GJ within six hours. These findings underscore the importance of considering surface and upper-level wind characteristics when assessing climate change impacts on wind energy resources. Furthermore, our study reveals a spatially heterogeneous pattern of changes in wind energy potential across the region. While decreases in wind energy are evident over much of the Middle East, particularly in inland areas and over the Mediterranean Sea, we have also observed some increases in potential, notably over the Red Sea. In summary, our study highlights significant changes in wind characteristics in a changing climate, with implications for the future energy mix in the Middle East. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and energy planners aiming to harness wind energy resources sustainably in the face of climate change challenges.