Current and future predicted distribution of roosts of the Indian Flying Fox Pteropus medius Temmink, 1825 in Nepal

The Indian Flying Fox Pteropus medius , largest of the four fruit bat species in Nepal and is extensively distributed in South Asia. Their known roosts are distributed within an elevation range of 75 to 1,322 m asl east to west in the Tarai, Chure, Inner-Tarai and central Middle Mountains regions of the country. In Nepal, the species is known to pollinate and disperse seeds of more than 26 families of flowering plants. Most of the known roosts lie within and in the close vicinity of urban land and agricultural areas. Recently, impacts of global warming on roosting and foraging habitats of fruit bats including flying foxes have been evidenced in different parts of the globe, however, it is still unknown in Nepal. In addition, most of the known roosting colonies of P. medius are outside the protected areas and are vulnerable due to greater threats. To assess habitat suitability, we deployed Maximum Entropy modelling using 44 geo-referenced roosts occurrence coordinates of P. medius and 11 bio-climatic variables and land use land cover data layer with low inter-correlation (r > 0.75). The current potential distribution of the species covers an area of 16,642 Km ² (about 11.3% of the country’s total area). The most influencing predictors for the habitat suitability are identified as; urban land, water source and Annual Mean Temperature. Our model projects that the majority (99%) of the current distribution range for P. medius will remain suitable in the future, although it will expand within the lower elevations in the Tarai, Chure and Inner-Tarai regions. A shift towards northern latitude and higher elevations is not anticipated. It is imperative to record and model foraging sites occurrence to better predict the flying fox distribution in the future. Since the roosting colonies are within the settlements and farmlands, our finding can be utilized for regular surveillance and monitoring of the roosting colonies from the health perspective. Conservation efforts should focus on conservation of water source, plantation of tall and broad canopy trees and regular monitoring of roosting sites to safeguard existing roosts of the species with the prevalence of the global warming.