Spatial-Temporal Variation and Correlation Analysis of Ecosystem Service Values and Ecological Risks in Winter Cities: Evidence from Shenyang, China

Ecosystems in winter cities are complex and fragile, experiencing significant changes due to climate variations and human construction activities. Assessing the ecological status and risk faced by these areas commonly involves using Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) and Ecological Risk Index (ERI). However, limited research has combined these two measures to reveal sptial-temporal trends in urban ecosystem conditions. This study utilizes land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 to construct ESV and ERI measurement models using the improved unit area value factor method and landscape pattern index method, respectively. By evaluating the regional and temporal differentiation features of ESV and ERI, in addition to their spatial association, the study identifies priority areas for urban ecological restoration and recommends rationalization solutions. The findings indicate: Between 2000 and 2020, Shenyang's total ESV decreased by 1.31%, from 273.97×10 ⁸ CNY to 270.38×10 ⁸ CNY. The ESV per unit area dropped from 21304.50 CNY/hm ² to 21025.33 CNY/hm ² . The ecological risk to the study area has increased. The area of ERI high-value, higher-value, and medium-value zones remained relatively stable, while the area of low-value zones decreased by 12.78%, and the area of lower-value zones increased by 13.21%. There is a spatial correlation between ESV and ERI in winter cities. The H-H area is distributed in the northeastern hilly region, which exhibits strong ESV supply capacity while facing severe ecological risks, identifying it as a priority region to pursue ecological rehabilitation. These results offer theoretical justification for urban management and planning, guaranteeing the ecological security and sustainability of winter cities.