Climate Change Impacts on Evapotranspiration, Crop Yield, and Green and Blue Water Footprints of Main Crops in a Semi-arid Region

Climate change presents a significant challenge with profound effects on water resources and agriculture. The Middle East is expected to face increased temperatures, more frequent droughts, and rising sea levels, impacting various sectors. The latest IPCC report highlights notable changes in global temperature and precipitation patterns. A study focusing on arid and semi arid region (the Garmsar Plain, Iran) assesses the impact of climate change on water requirements, yield, and water footprint of crops under different scenarios. Analysis suggests that spring and summer will experience the highest and lowest precipitation increases, respectively, in the future, with notable temperature changes in fall and winter. The overall increase in water requirements for crops is lower in scenario SSP1.2.6 than scenario SSP5.8.5.The highest increase in water requirement for crops will occur at the end of the century and in the period 2076-2100 which is consistent with the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures and decreasing precipitation in the region.Water requirements for crops are predicted to rise, especially for cotton and alfalfa towards the end of the century. Despite improved crop yields, there will be a shift towards a higher green water footprint and lower blue water footprint. Understanding these trends and implementing adaptation strategies are vital for effective water resource management in the face of climate change's impact on agriculture.