Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Pandemic Putting into consideration Pathogens in the Environment

We develop a compartmental epidemic mo del which takes into consideration hospitalized individuals and pathogens in the environment that describes a more realistic mathematical model for understanding the trans mission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The next generation matrix approach is used to determine the control reproduction number (R0C) which we found to be 2.76 implying that the pandemic will persist in the absence of strong control measures. Rigorous mathematical analysis is used to study several properties of the model. We also studied the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters to know the parameters that have a high impact on the reproduction number (R0C). The model was parameterized using COVID-19 data published by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC). The numerical simulation also carried out to verify the theoretical results. The model shows that the hospitalized individuals and pathogens in the environment have positive impact on the control reproduction number (R0C).