Assessing receptivity to malaria using case surveillance and forest data in a near-elimination setting in northeast Thailand

Background Thailand aims to eliminate malaria by 2024, and as such is now planning for future prevention of re-establishment. Understanding the receptivity of local areas to malaria allows the appropriate targeting of interventions. Current approaches to assessing receptivity involve collecting entomological data. Forest coverage is known to be associated with malaria risk, as an environment conducive to both vector breeding and high-risk human behaviours. Methods Geolocated, anonymised, individual-level surveillance data from 2011 to 2021 from the Thai Division of Vector-Borne Disease (DVBD) was used to calculate incidence and estimated R _c at village level. Forest cover was calculated using raster maps of tree crown cover density and year of forest loss from the publicly available Hansen dataset. Incidence and forest cover were compared graphically and using spearman’s rho. The current foci classification system was applied to data to the last 5 years (2017–2021) and forest cover for 2021 compared between the classifications. A simple risk score was developed to identify villages with high receptivity. Results There was a non-linear decrease in annual cases by 96.6% (1,061 to 36) across the two provinces from 2011 to 2021. Indigenous Annual Parasite Index (API) and approximated R _c were higher in villages in highly forested subdistricts, and with higher forest cover within 5km. Forest cover was also higher in malaria foci which consistently reported malaria cases each year than those which did not. An R _c > 1 was only reported in villages in subdistricts with > 25% forest cover. When applying a simple risk score using forest cover and recent case history, the classifications were comparable to those of the risk stratification system currently used by the DVBD. Conclusions There was a positive association between forest coverage around a village and indigenous malaria cases. Most local transmission was observed in the heavily forested subdistricts on the international borders with Laos and Cambodia, which are where the most receptive villages are located. These areas are at greater risk of importation of malaria due to population mobility and forest-going activities. Combining forest cover and recent case surveillance data with measures of vulnerability may be useful for prediction of malaria recurrence risk.