System dynamics analysis of synergistic development between tourism and resident wellbeing in Zhejiang Province of China

Tourism is a strategic pillar industry for Zhejiang Province and a "happiness industry" essential for enhancing social welfare and public livelihoods. Exploring the coordinated relationship between tourism development and resident wellbeing is crucial for transforming the value of provincial tourism into tangible livelihood benefits. This paper utilizes an integrated approach—combining the Entropy Weight Method, the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, and System Dynamics (SD)—to explore the co-evolutionary mechanisms of tourism and resident wellbeing using statistical data from 2015 to 2023.The findings indicate that: (1) Resident wellbeing in Zhejiang grew steadily from 0.04 in 2015 to 0.18 in 2023, while tourism development, impacted by the pandemic, exhibited a pattern of "high fluctuation, sharp decline, and gradual recovery." (2) The coupling coordination analysis reveals a prolonged "antagonistic stage," with the coordination degree hovering within the "low-to-medium" range, suggesting that system interaction intensity currently outweighs synergistic efficiency. (3) SD simulations across five driving modes—natural change, tourism enterprises, tourism market, social development, and total factor—demonstrate that the total factor driving mode yields the best results in tourism growth, wellbeing, and income security. This underscores the vital role of multi-factor synergy in promoting common prosperity. This research provides both a theoretical framework and a practical pathway for optimizing tourism development and enhancing resident wellbeing at the provincial scale.