Demographic Transition and Global Food Security: A Systematic Review of Agricultural Pressures and Policy Responses

This systematic review examines the relationships between population dynamics, demographic transition, and the capacity of global agricultural systems to sustain food security for a world population projected to approach ten billion by mid-century. Drawing upon peer-reviewed literature, intergovernmental datasets, and quantitative modelling studies from 2000 to 2026, the review synthesises evidence across five thematic areas: regional patterns of demographic growth and transition; the dietary and logistical consequences of accelerating urbanisation; the conceptual foundations and limitations of per capita food availability modelling; compound pressures on agricultural systems arising from land degradation, freshwater depletion, climate change, and biodiversity loss; and the technological, equity, and governance dimensions of feasible policy responses. The findings demonstrate that aggregate global food production is, in principle, expandable to meet projected demand, but that chronic food insecurity reflects structural inequalities in access, distribution, and governance rather than absolute productive insufficiency. Urbanisation amplifies resource-intensive dietary demand whilst simultaneously creating opportunities for more efficient food distribution. Effective responses require the integration of supply-side intensification, demand-side dietary management, waste reduction, and equitable governance reform. Future research priorities include subnational demographic-agricultural modelling, comparative governance analysis, and investigation of the food system implications of population ageing.