Human Capital and the Development of Non-Wood Forest Products: An Econometric Analysis of Livelihood Capital Mechanisms in Koyten Dag, Turkmenistan

The research is an exploration of how livelihood capital endowments affect the growth of Non-Wood Forest Products (NWFPs) in rural communities at the Koyten Dag part of Turkmenistan. The study is based on the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework and grounded by the Capability Approach, Institutional Theory, and Human Capital Theory which are considered to have a strong influence on NWFP development within the exclusive post-Soviet socio-ecological environment. The study also utilizes annual periods of time series data between 2001 and 2024 and applies the ARDL bounds testing method to test the short and long-run associations among livelihood assets and NWFP production. The results verify the high degree of long-run cointegrating, showing that the five capitals have a great impact through which they affect the development of NWFP in a positive way. Emerging as the ultimate drivers both in the short and long-term, education, skills, health, and digital connectivity become especially important. Financial and social capitals reflect the long-run contribution foundations and natural capital shows the significance of the availability of ecological resources and governance systems. The correction error term is a sign of a quick rate of adjustment meaning that the system of livelihoods is robust and can be brought back to equilibrium within a short duration of time in case of temporary shocks. Stability in results is checked by robustness tests conducted by FMOLS and DOLS. The paper has significant theoretical and practical implications such as that the policies have to be integrative and at the same time enhance human capabilities, digital infrastructure, institutional quality, and resource governance. This knowledge can be used to promote the sustainable development of rural areas and an efficiency approach to the NWFP sector in Turkmenistan.