Transition to Organic Farming in Italy Through a Dynamic Mathematical Programming Model: Impacts on Agricultural Area and Budget Allocation

The European Union aims to achieve the target of 25% of land under organic farming by 2030. Italy reached the share of 18.7% in 2022, although significant regional differences persist. This study analyzes farms’ conversion response in the Lazio region (Italy) to evaluate the effectiveness of higher economic incentives in promoting organic conversion. The agro-economic supply model AGRITALIM is applied to a sample of 587 FADN farms. The model simulates individual farm conversion choice, distinguishing between conversion and maintenance phases, and accounting for conversion costs, yield, and price variations associated with each period. Results show limited effects of increased economic support: the 2023–2027 Common Agricultural Policy reform, characterized by higher support, leads to a 5.1% increase in the area under organic farming, while a 40% increase in financial support generates an expansion of 12%. Farm responses are highly heterogeneous: rural provinces, larger and arable farms are more responsive, while smaller farms and livestock are less likely to convert. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy strategies combining financial support, reduced costs, technical assistance, and improved market access. The methodological approach adopted in this study provides a useful tool for supporting the design of targeted and effective policy interventions.