An Integrated Methodology for Assessing Wind Power Curtailment Using Anemometric Measurements and Operational Data in the Brazilian Context

The increasing share of wind power generation has intensified the occurrence of curtailment events in power systems worldwide, mainly driven by transmission constraints, operational limitations, and imbalances between generation and demand. In the Brazilian context, this phenomenon has become more pronounced since 2023, highlighting structural challenges of the Brazilian Interconnected Power System and the need for reliable methodologies to estimate curtailed wind generation. This study presents a methodology to estimate wind power potential during curtailment events, aiming to support forecasting models and the economic compensation of affected generating agents. The proposed approach integrates measured power generation data, technical information of wind farms, and anemometric measurements from SCADA systems, combining data filtering and consistency procedures, gap-filling based on spatial correlation among wind farms, and regression models supported by statistical and computational techniques for wind-to-power conversion. The methodology was applied to more than 1,000 wind farms connected to the Brazilian transmission grid and achieved accuracy levels above 95% on a semi-hourly basis and exceeding 99% for annual aggregations.