Weighted Average Cost of Capital in Declining Interest Rate Environments (Part I): A Quantitative Risk Analysis

The article examines the persistent stability of weighted average cost of capital (WACC) disclosed by German DAX40 companies despite substantial declines in risk-free interest rates between 2004 and 2021. While theory suggests that WACC should reflect lower risk-free interest rates and decline as well with falling government bond yields, empirical evidence reveals minimal adjustment in reported WACC figures. Disclosed WACC of DAX40 companies remain between 7% and 8% as the yield of the ten-year German government bond fell from 4.1% to –0.2%. This study employs quantitative analyses to investigate whether systematic increases in risk exposure can explain this phenomenon. Using capital market data spanning from 2000 to 2023, we analyze five risk dimensions: systematic risk (beta factors), overall market volatility, risk aversion (lambda factors), earnings risk, and financial structure risk. Bootstrap analyses reveal a 41.5% reduction in beta factor variance, while volatility analyses demonstrate declining market risk exposure. The market price of risk analysis does not reveal definite findings. Earnings risk measures indicate improved financial stability, and debt ratios show modest declines. These findings suggest that observable risk parameters cannot explain persistent WACC levels, indicating a disconnect between theoretical WACC calculations and practitioner applications in investment project decision-making following value-based management principles.