From Irreproducible Science to Venture-Fundable Fiction: How Incentives, Paper Mills, and Capital Markets Enable a New Class of Biotech Startups

The reproducibility crisis has progressed from a methodological concern into a systemic threat to biomedical innovation. While irreproducible findings have long been recognized as a barrier to scientific progress, recent evidence suggests the emergence of a more consequential downstream phenomenon: venture-backed biotech and pharmaceutical startups built on compromised scientific foundations, including irreproducible and, in some cases, fabricated results. This commentary argues that the modern incentive structure—where publication volume and journal prestige strongly influence grant success—creates conditions that can reward narrative certainty over empirical truth. These incentives may promote the growth of paper mills, selective reporting, and other forms of research misconduct, while simultaneously increasing the probability that venture capital funds companies whose core claims are not biologically valid. Such “venture-fundable fiction” can crowd out rigorously grounded programs, distort capital allocation, and erode trust in biomedical R&D. The consequences extend beyond economics: a culture of performative productivity may select for dishonesty in early-career researchers, accelerating talent loss from academia and reinforcing unethical norms within startups. Finally, this commentary highlights the risk that artificial intelligence (AI)–driven drug discovery may amplify these failures when trained on contaminated literature and datasets. Addressing this trajectory will require coordinated reforms in funding incentives, publication standards, reproducibility verification, and investment diligence practices to protect scientific integrity and accelerate genuine medical progress.