Too Short or Too Long? Finding the Perfect Timing for Cabinet Reshuffles in Africa Too Short or Too Long? Finding the Perfect Timing for Cabinet Reshuffles in Africa

Although researchers document the political utility of cabinet reshuffles in African presidential systems extensively, they devote insufficient empirical attention to the trade-offs these reshuffles impose on economic performance. This paper delivers robust evidence that frequent ministerial changes inflict substantial, often underestimated costs on economic growth. The analysis draws on data from 19 African nations spanning 2006 to 2023 and applies a polynomial dynamic panel model, which uncovers a nonlinear relationship between cabinet stability and economic performance. Empirical estimates indicate that each cabinet reshuffle lowers annual GDP per capita growth by roughly 1.7 to 2.9 percentage points. The study further detects an inverted U-shaped relationship between ministerial tenure and economic outcomes. The Least Squares Dummy Variable Corrected (LSDVC) estimator reveals that ministers maximize economic growth at an optimal tenure of approximately 51.9 months (4.3 years). Beyond this threshold, moral hazard effects dominate the gains from accumulated experience. These results underscore a pivotal governance dilemma for African presidents: they must weigh the political benefits of cabinet reshuffles against their economic costs. The study thus advances insights into governance dynamics and economic performance in African settings.