EU Security and Defense Funds: A Brief Analysis of Threat Exposure and Financial Support to Member‐States

The allocation of European Union (EU) funds for security and defense is central to solidarity among Member States. Yet, as geopolitical instability and hybrid threats continue to grow in the EU, concerns have emerged about whether the current distribution of EU funding adequately reflects the varying degrees of exposure among states. Taking this problematic in consideration, this article draws on the findings from the UDebDS project, which examines how funds are currently allocated and whether the states facing the highest security risks are receiving commensurate support. To achieve our goals we used a multidisciplinary, data-driven approach. That approach included the development of a comprehensive dataset and a set of measurable risk indicators (MRIs), capable of capturing vulnerabilities and deficits. Based on the MRIs, our research proposed an alternative model to support a more balanced and responsive EU funding. By doing so, we expect to inform ongoing policy discussion around equity and the future of shared defense investments in the Union. Further steps should build on the refinement of our model through sensitivity testing and a simulation-based studies to examine how alternative allocation models can influence the EU defense posture.