Comprehensive Analysis of Weather and Commodity Impacts on Day Ahead Electricity Market Using Public API Data with Development of an Accessible Forecasting Mode

A wide range of factors influences the dynamic and complex environment that is the commodity market. The most significant of these are external influences, such as political decisions and weather conditions, which cannot be directly controlled. Nevertheless, specific characteristics and price behaviors are exhibited by individual commodities, which manifest through seasonal patterns and characteristic fluctuations. This study aimed to analyses the day-ahead electricity market and identify the key factors influencing electricity price formation. Particular focus was given to the impact of meteorological variables and the interrelationships between the prices of other commodities, such as natural gas, coal and oil. A basic forecast of electricity prices in the day-ahead market was provided by a simple predictive model that was developed based on the findings. The results highlight the interconnectedness of energy markets and confirm that external factors play a crucial role in shaping electricity prices.